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Optik Rathenow vs Lichtenberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lichtenberg
Lichtenberg
10/3/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 8Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Optik Rathenow23%
×Draw20%
Lichtenberg58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Optik Rathenow
1.40
Lichtenberg
2.31

Lichtenberg creates 65% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Optik Rathenow
1.61
Lichtenberg
3.04

allows per match

Optik Rathenow
1.59
Lichtenberg
1.18

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par
Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw
42%
Optik Rathenow or Lichtenberg
80%
Draw or Lichtenberg
77%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
10%
Lichtenberg wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
75%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
41%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
17%
Lichtenberg 1+ goals
90%
Lichtenberg 2+ goals
67%
Lichtenberg 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
28%
Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 3.04, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.61 + Lichtenberg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lichtenberg attack 3.04 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more
23%
level
20%
Lichtenberg scores more
58%

Lichtenberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Optik Rathenow vs Lichtenberg

Optik Rathenow and Lichtenberg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vogelgesang in Rathenow.