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Optik Rathenow vs Hertha BSC II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Hertha BSC II
Hertha BSC II
Unknown 88', 47', 33', 21'
F. Niederlechner 11'
7/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Optik Rathenow23%
×Draw17%
Hertha BSC II60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Optik Rathenow
1.76
Hertha BSC II
2.87

Hertha BSC II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

creates per match

Optik Rathenow
1.63
Hertha BSC II
3.11

allows per match

Optik Rathenow
2.63
Hertha BSC II
1.89

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par
Hertha BSC II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Hertha BSC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw
40%
Optik Rathenow or Hertha BSC II
83%
Draw or Hertha BSC II
77%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
11%
Hertha BSC II wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
83%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
52%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
26%
Hertha BSC II 1+ goals
94%
Hertha BSC II 2+ goals
77%
Hertha BSC II 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
27%
Hertha BSC II (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.63 · 24 matches

Hertha BSC II away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.63 + Hertha BSC II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Hertha BSC II attack 3.11 + Optik Rathenow defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more
23%
level
17%
Hertha BSC II scores more
60%

Hertha BSC II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hertha BSC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Niederlechner
21'
33'
47'
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Optik Rathenow vs Hertha BSC II

Hertha BSC II beat Optik Rathenow 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2024.

Goals: F. Niederlechner (11'), ? (21', 33', 47', 88').

The match was played at Stadion Vogelgesang in Rathenow.