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Optik Rathenow vs BFC Dynamo — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
CANC
12:30
BFC Dynamo
BFC Dynamo
3/14/2021Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 27Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Optik Rathenow17%
×Draw19%
BFC Dynamo63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Optik Rathenow
1.11
BFC Dynamo
2.28

BFC Dynamo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Optik Rathenow
1.17
BFC Dynamo
2.06

allows per match

Optik Rathenow
2.50
BFC Dynamo
1.06

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par
BFC Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

BFC Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw
37%
Optik Rathenow or BFC Dynamo
81%
Draw or BFC Dynamo
83%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
6%
BFC Dynamo wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
67%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
30%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
10%
BFC Dynamo 1+ goals
90%
BFC Dynamo 2+ goals
66%
BFC Dynamo 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
22%
BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

BFC Dynamo away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.17 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

BFC Dynamo attack 2.06 + Optik Rathenow defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more
17%
level
19%
BFC Dynamo scores more
63%

BFC Dynamo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Optik Rathenow host BFC Dynamo

March 14, 2021: Optik Rathenow take on BFC Dynamo in Regionalliga - Nordost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Optik Rathenow host BFC Dynamo at Stadion Vogelgesang.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.