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BFC Dynamo vs Optik Rathenow — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BFC Dynamo
BFC Dynamo
CANC
12:00
Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
1/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

BFC Dynamo49%
×Draw20%
Optik Rathenow31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Dynamo
2.35
Optik Rathenow
1.85

BFC Dynamo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

BFC Dynamo
2.82
Optik Rathenow
1.88

allows per match

BFC Dynamo
1.82
Optik Rathenow
1.88

finishing

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par
Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Dynamo ↓

Optik Rathenow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

BFC Dynamo or draw
69%
BFC Dynamo or Optik Rathenow
80%
Draw or Optik Rathenow
51%

Winning margin

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+
30%
Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals
90%
BFC Dynamo 2+ goals
68%
BFC Dynamo 3+ goals
41%
Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
84%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
55%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)
61%
Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Dynamo at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Optik Rathenow away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Dynamo attack 2.82 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.35

Optik Rathenow attack 1.88 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BFC Dynamo scores more
49%
level
20%
Optik Rathenow scores more
31%

BFC Dynamo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BFC Dynamo host Optik Rathenow

January 10, 2026: BFC Dynamo take on Optik Rathenow in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.