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OPS Oulu vs OTP — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

OPS Oulu
OPS Oulu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
OTP
OTP
5/13/2024Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 5Heinäpään tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

OPS Oulu45%
×Draw23%
OTP32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OPS Oulu
1.79
OTP
1.48

OPS Oulu creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 42 away

creates per match

OPS Oulu
1.78
OTP
1.29

allows per match

OPS Oulu
1.67
OTP
1.79

finishing

OPS Oulu+0.00on par
OTP+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OPS Oulu ↓

OTP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

OPS Oulu or draw
68%
OPS Oulu or OTP
77%
Draw or OTP
55%

Winning margin

OPS Oulu wins by 2+
24%
OTP wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

OPS Oulu 1+ goals
83%
OPS Oulu 2+ goals
53%
OPS Oulu 3+ goals
26%
OTP 1+ goals
77%
OTP 2+ goals
43%
OTP 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

OPS Oulu (draw refunded)
58%
OTP (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OPS Oulu at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

OTP away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OPS Oulu attack 1.78 + OTP defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

OTP attack 1.29 + OPS Oulu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OPS Oulu scores more
45%
level
23%
OTP scores more
32%

OPS Oulu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "OPS Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OPS Oulu vs OTP

OPS Oulu and OTP drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Heinäpään tekonurmi in Oulu.