OPS Oulu 3–0 JS Hercules: Result & Stats

OPS Oulu

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

JS Hercules

O. Ajayi 71'

C. Chukwu 67'

J. Vääräniemi 21'

5/24/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 7Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

OPS Oulu48%

×Draw22%

JS Hercules31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OPS OuluExpected goals in this matchJS Hercules

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.59

OPS Oulu

2.01

JS Hercules

1.59

OPS Oulu creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 88 away

1.90

creates per match

1.68

1.50

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

OPS Oulu

1.90

JS Hercules

1.68

allows per match

OPS Oulu

1.50

JS Hercules

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OPS Oulu+0.00on par

JS Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OPS Oulu ↓

JS Hercules →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

OPS Oulu or draw

69%

OPS Oulu or JS Hercules

78%

Draw or JS Hercules

52%

Winning margin

OPS Oulu wins by 2+

27%

JS Hercules wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

OPS Oulu 1+ goals

87%

OPS Oulu 2+ goals

59%

OPS Oulu 3+ goals

32%

JS Hercules 1+ goals

80%

JS Hercules 2+ goals

47%

JS Hercules 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

OPS Oulu (draw refunded)

61%

JS Hercules (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OPS Oulu at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

JS Hercules away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.13 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OPS Oulu attack 1.90 + JS Hercules defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.01

JS Hercules attack 1.68 + OPS Oulu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

OPS Oulu scores more

48%

level

22%

JS Hercules scores more

31%

OPS Oulu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "OPS Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. Chukwu← J. Haapala

21'

J. Vääräniemi

23'

E. Immonen

40'

S. Attah← J. Vääräniemi

44'

K. Rauma

47'

J. Vaaraniemi

51'

E. Huitsi← K. Moilanen

56'

D. Chukwu

65'

J. Kurvinen← E. Immonen

67'

C. Chukwu

71'

O. Ajayi

72'

K. Sarajärvi← J. Lotvonen

83'

D. Mwai← M. Juntunen

83'

B. Aganze← J. Leskelä

OPS

JS

19

▼

12

4

2

24

18

99

39

▼

Lotvonen

33

▼

28

7

12

5

2

18

22

▼

Leskelä

16

▼

Juntunen

11

▼

Haapala

6

Orishani

8

⚽

Ajayi

10

⚽

Chukwu

9

⚽

▼

Vääräniem

Manager: M. Juntunen

9'▲D. Chukwu←▼J. Haapala

40'▲S. Attah←▼J. Vääräniemi

83'▲D. Mwai←▼M. Juntunen

83'▲B. Aganze←▼J. Leskelä

OPS Oulu substitutes

20Chukwu24Attah15Mwai17Aganze1Kemppainen13Kilpelänaho3Kokkonen

Manager: C. Edwards

51'▲E. Huitsi←▼K. Moilanen

65'▲J. Kurvinen←▼E. Immonen

72'▲K. Sarajärvi←▼J. Lotvonen

JS Hercules substitutes

25Huitsi13Kurvinen10Sarajärvi1Niinivaara29Taumberger16Sipola

Match Recap: OPS Oulu vs JS Hercules

OPS Oulu beat JS Hercules 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 24, 2024.

Goals: J. Vääräniemi (21'), C. Chukwu (67'), O. Ajayi (71').

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.

OPS Oulu vs JS Hercules — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: OPS Oulu vs JS Hercules