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OPS Oulu vs JPS — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2026

OPS Oulu
OPS Oulu
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
JPS
JPS
7/31/2024Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 17Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

OPS Oulu51%
×Draw23%
JPS25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OPS Oulu
1.78
JPS
1.18

OPS Oulu creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

OPS Oulu
2.00
JPS
1.00

allows per match

OPS Oulu
1.36
JPS
1.56

finishing

OPS Oulu+0.00on par
JPS+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OPS Oulu ↓

JPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

OPS Oulu or draw
75%
OPS Oulu or JPS
77%
Draw or JPS
49%

Winning margin

OPS Oulu wins by 2+
28%
JPS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OPS Oulu 1+ goals
83%
OPS Oulu 2+ goals
53%
OPS Oulu 3+ goals
26%
JPS 1+ goals
69%
JPS 2+ goals
33%
JPS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

OPS Oulu (draw refunded)
67%
JPS (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OPS Oulu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

JPS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OPS Oulu attack 2.00 + JPS defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

JPS attack 1.00 + OPS Oulu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

OPS Oulu scores more
51%
level
23%
JPS scores more
25%

OPS Oulu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "OPS Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OPS Oulu 4 – 3 JPS

OPS Oulu beat JPS 4-3 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.