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Oppsal vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Oppsal
Oppsal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
6/10/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 10Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oppsal76%
×Draw14%
Mjøndalen II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oppsal
2.88
Mjøndalen II
0.97

Oppsal creates 197% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Oppsal
2.23
Mjøndalen II
0.85

allows per match

Oppsal
1.08
Mjøndalen II
3.54

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw
90%
Oppsal or Mjøndalen II
86%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
24%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+
55%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals
94%
Oppsal 2+ goals
78%
Oppsal 3+ goals
54%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
62%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
25%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)
88%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 2.23 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.88

Mjøndalen II attack 0.85 + Oppsal defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Oppsal scores more
76%
level
14%
Mjøndalen II scores more
10%

Oppsal at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oppsal vs Mjøndalen II

Oppsal beat Mjøndalen II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 10, 2024.

The match was played at Trasop kunstgress in Oslo.