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Oppsal vs Kråkerøy — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Oppsal
Oppsal
CANC
14:00
Kråkerøy
Kråkerøy
9/26/20203. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 8Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Oppsal49%
×Draw22%
Kråkerøy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oppsal
1.92
Kråkerøy
1.42

Oppsal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Oppsal
1.67
Kråkerøy
1.83

allows per match

Oppsal
1.00
Kråkerøy
2.17

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par
Kråkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Kråkerøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw
71%
Oppsal or Kråkerøy
78%
Draw or Kråkerøy
51%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+
28%
Kråkerøy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals
85%
Oppsal 2+ goals
57%
Oppsal 3+ goals
30%
Kråkerøy 1+ goals
76%
Kråkerøy 2+ goals
41%
Kråkerøy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)
63%
Kråkerøy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Kråkerøy away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 1.67 + Kråkerøy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kråkerøy attack 1.83 + Oppsal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oppsal scores more
49%
level
22%
Kråkerøy scores more
29%

Oppsal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oppsal host Kråkerøy

September 26, 2020: Oppsal take on Kråkerøy in 3. Division - Girone 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oppsal host Kråkerøy at Trasop kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.