Oppsal 1–1 Kjelsås II: Result & Stats

Oppsal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kjelsås II

5/9/2022

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 5Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oppsal49%

×Draw25%

Kjelsås II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OppsalExpected goals in this matchKjelsås II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.11

Oppsal

1.61

Kjelsås II

1.11

Oppsal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.85

creates per match

0.77

1.46

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Oppsal

1.85

Kjelsås II

0.77

allows per match

Oppsal

1.46

Kjelsås II

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par

Kjelsås II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Kjelsås II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw

74%

Oppsal or Kjelsås II

75%

Draw or Kjelsås II

51%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+

26%

Kjelsås II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals

80%

Oppsal 2+ goals

48%

Oppsal 3+ goals

22%

Kjelsås II 1+ goals

67%

Kjelsås II 2+ goals

30%

Kjelsås II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)

65%

Kjelsås II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Kjelsås II away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 1.85 + Kjelsås II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kjelsås II attack 0.77 + Oppsal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oppsal scores more

49%

level

25%

Kjelsås II scores more

26%

Oppsal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff