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Oppsal vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Oppsal
Oppsal
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Grorud II
Grorud II
5/21/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 7Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oppsal49%
×Draw21%
Grorud II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oppsal
2.15
Grorud II
1.67

Oppsal creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Oppsal
1.85
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

Oppsal
1.46
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw
70%
Oppsal or Grorud II
79%
Draw or Grorud II
51%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+
29%
Grorud II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals
88%
Oppsal 2+ goals
63%
Oppsal 3+ goals
36%
Grorud II 1+ goals
81%
Grorud II 2+ goals
50%
Grorud II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)
62%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 1.85 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.15

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Oppsal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oppsal scores more
49%
level
21%
Grorud II scores more
30%

Oppsal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Oppsal 4–1 Grorud II

Oppsal beat Grorud II 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Trasop kunstgress in Oslo.