Oppsal 2–1 Fredrikstad II: Result & Stats

Oppsal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fredrikstad II

3/30/2025

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 1Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Oppsal53%

×Draw21%

Fredrikstad II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OppsalExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.48

Oppsal

2.18

Fredrikstad II

1.48

Oppsal creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.82

creates per match

1.31

1.64

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Oppsal

1.82

Fredrikstad II

1.31

allows per match

Oppsal

1.64

Fredrikstad II

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Fredrikstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw

74%

Oppsal or Fredrikstad II

79%

Draw or Fredrikstad II

47%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+

32%

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals

89%

Oppsal 2+ goals

64%

Oppsal 3+ goals

37%

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

77%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

43%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)

67%

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 1.82 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.18

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + Oppsal defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oppsal scores more

53%

level

21%

Fredrikstad II scores more

26%

Oppsal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff