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Oppsal vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Oppsal
Oppsal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Frøya
Frøya
9/24/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 22Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oppsal53%
×Draw20%
Frøya26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oppsal
2.25
Frøya
1.55

Oppsal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Oppsal
1.85
Frøya
1.65

allows per match

Oppsal
1.46
Frøya
2.65

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw
74%
Oppsal or Frøya
80%
Draw or Frøya
47%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+
32%
Frøya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals
89%
Oppsal 2+ goals
65%
Oppsal 3+ goals
39%
Frøya 1+ goals
79%
Frøya 2+ goals
46%
Frøya 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)
67%
Frøya (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 1.85 + Frøya defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.25

Frøya attack 1.65 + Oppsal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oppsal scores more
53%
level
20%
Frøya scores more
26%

Oppsal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oppsal 0 – 1 Frøya

Frøya beat Oppsal 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Trasop kunstgress in Oslo.