Operario-PR 1–0 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Operario-PR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani Campinas

Boschilia 64' (pen)

9/25/2024

Serie B · Round 28Estádio Germano Krüger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Operario-PR47%

×Draw29%

Guarani Campinas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario-PRExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.83

Operario-PR

1.29

Guarani Campinas

0.83

Operario-PR creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

0.87

0.80

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Operario-PR

1.33

Guarani Campinas

0.87

allows per match

Operario-PR

0.80

Guarani Campinas

1.24

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Operario-PR+0.12scores more

Guarani Campinas+0.03on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario-PR ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Operario-PR or draw

76%

Operario-PR or Guarani Campinas

71%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

53%

Winning margin

Operario-PR wins by 2+

22%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Operario-PR 1+ goals

72%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

37%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

14%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

56%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

20%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

66%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario-PR at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario-PR attack 1.33 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guarani Campinas attack 0.87 + Operario-PR defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Operario-PR scores more

47%

level

29%

Guarani Campinas scores more

24%

Operario-PR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Operario-PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Pegorari

Guarani Campinas · G

7.9

Match Events

10'

Daniel Lima← Vinícius Mingotti

38'

Daniel Alves

38'

Pierre

54'

Gabriel Feliciano← Pará

64'

Luan Dias

64'

BoschiliaPenalty

67'

Gabriel Boschilia

67'

Heitor← Pacheco

67'

Marcelinho← Marlon Maranhão

70'

Matheus Salustiano

72'

Rodrigo Lindoso← Vinícius Diniz

73'

Jacy← Índio

73'

Felipe Augusto← Boschilia

78'

Reinaldo← João Victor

78'

Anderson Leite← Pierre

78'

90+4'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Operario-PRGuarani

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots9

7Corners7

14Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots9

8On Target4

5Off Target2

3Blocked3

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

347Total Passes448

277Accurate Passes368

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0