Operario-PR 1–0 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Operario-PR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avai

Maxwell 90+6'

4/20/2024

Serie B · Round 1Estádio Germano Krüger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Operario-PR46%

×Draw28%

Avai26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario-PRExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.91

Operario-PR

1.33

Avai

0.91

Operario-PR creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

1.34

creates per match

1.08

0.74

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Operario-PR

1.34

Avai

1.08

allows per match

Operario-PR

0.74

Avai

1.32

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Operario-PR+0.26scores more

Avai-0.08on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario-PR ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Operario-PR or draw

74%

Operario-PR or Avai

72%

Draw or Avai

54%

Winning margin

Operario-PR wins by 2+

22%

Avai wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Operario-PR 1+ goals

74%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

38%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

15%

Avai 1+ goals

60%

Avai 2+ goals

23%

Avai 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

64%

Avai (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario-PR at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.74 · 15 matches

Avai away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario-PR attack 1.34 + Avai defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Avai attack 1.08 + Operario-PR defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Operario-PR scores more

46%

level

28%

Avai scores more

26%

Operario-PR at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Operario-PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Willian Machado

Operario-PR · D

7.3

Match Events

74'

Danielzinho← Ronaldo

74'

Neto Paraíba← Vinícius Diniz

74'

Cássio Gabriel← Rodrigo Lindoso

76'

Gabriel Poveda← Hygor

77'

Ronald← Marcelo Cirino

79'

Maxwell← Felipe Augusto

83'

Pedrinho← Maurício Garcez

87'

Pedrinho

89'

Maxwell

90'

Natanael← Willian Maranhão

90'

Giovanni← João Paulo

90+6'

Maxwell↳ Neto Paraíba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Operario-PRAvai

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots4

5Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots4

5On Target1

4Off Target3

3Blocked0

4Inside Box0

8Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

445Total Passes320

354Accurate Passes217

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3