Operario-PR 3–0 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Operario-PR

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Brenno Pereira 90' (pen)

Boschilia 87' (pen)

Indio 67'

7/22/2025

Serie B · Round 18Estádio Germano Krüger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Operario-PR47%

×Draw26%

Atletico Goianiense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario-PRExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.05

Operario-PR

1.46

Atletico Goianiense

1.05

Operario-PR creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.47

creates per match

1.21

0.90

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Operario-PR

1.47

Atletico Goianiense

1.21

allows per match

Operario-PR

0.90

Atletico Goianiense

1.45

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Operario-PR+0.20scores more

Atletico Goianiense-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario-PR ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Operario-PR or draw

73%

Operario-PR or Atletico Goianiense

74%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

53%

Winning margin

Operario-PR wins by 2+

23%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Operario-PR 1+ goals

77%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

43%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

63%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario-PR at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.90 · 9 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.45 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario-PR attack 1.47 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.21 + Operario-PR defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Operario-PR scores more

47%

level

26%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

27%

Operario-PR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Operario-PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Boschilia

Operario-PR · M

8.9

Match Events

35'

Conrado Buchanelli Holz

39'

Wallace

45'

Matheus Felipe← Wallace

46'

Gabriel Feliciano← Cristiano

46'

Brenno Pereira← Rodrigo Rodrigues

46'

Matheus Souza← J. Zuluaga

46'

Ariel← Shaylon

51'

Kelvin

59'

Brenno Pereira SilvaPenalty cancelled

65'

F. Martinez← E. Ham

66'

Gabriel Boschilia

66'

Kleiton← Vinicius Mingotti

67'

Indio↳ Boschilia

70'

Ariel Gomes

72'

Paulo Vítor

74'

Willian MaranhãoRed card cancelled

75'

Paraíba

75'

Willian Maranhão

82'

Matheus SouzaPenalty confirmed

83'

Paulo Vítor

85'

Vladimir← Daniel Lima

85'

Luizao← Willian Maranhao

87'

BoschiliaPenalty

89'

Thiaguinho← Boschilia

90+5'

Joseph

90+7'

Matheus Felipe

90'

Brenno PereiraPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Operario-PRAtletico

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots3

1.93Expected Goals (xG)0.15

3Corners2

14Fouls26

Shots

11Total Shots3

5On Target3

2Off Target0

4Blocked0

6Inside Box2

5Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

327Total Passes284

265Accurate Passes215

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls26

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards2

1Offsides3