Operario-PR 1–0 America Mineiro: Result & Stats

Operario-PR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America Mineiro

Boschilia 6'

5/4/2025

Serie B · Round 6Estádio Germano Krüger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Operario-PR49%

×Draw28%

America Mineiro23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario-PRExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.81

Operario-PR

1.33

America Mineiro

0.81

Operario-PR creates 64% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

1.38

creates per match

0.74

0.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Operario-PR

1.38

America Mineiro

0.74

allows per match

Operario-PR

0.88

America Mineiro

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Operario-PR+0.00on par

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario-PR ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Operario-PR or draw

77%

Operario-PR or America Mineiro

72%

Draw or America Mineiro

51%

Winning margin

Operario-PR wins by 2+

23%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Operario-PR 1+ goals

74%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

38%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

15%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

56%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

19%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

68%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario-PR at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario-PR attack 1.38 + America Mineiro defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

America Mineiro attack 0.74 + Operario-PR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Operario-PR scores more

49%

level

28%

America Mineiro scores more

23%

Operario-PR at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Operario-PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Boschilia

Operario-PR · M

8.0

Match Events

6'

Boschilia↳ Allano

45'

Allano

46'

Neto Paraiba← Thales Oleques

46'

Martin Benitez← Miguelito

46'

Fabinho← Stenio

56'

Vinicius Mingotti← Daniel Amorim

60'

Paraíba

61'

Martín Benítez

67'

Rodrigo Rodrigues← Marcos Paulo

67'

Pedro Barcelos← Marlon

67'

Kaua Diniz← Miqueias

69'

Kauã Diniz

78'

Fransergio← Jacy

78'

Ronald← Allano

79'

F. Elizari← Willian Bigode

83'

86'

88'

88'

90+4'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Operario-PRAmerica

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots10

5Corners4

17Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots10

4On Target3

10Off Target5

2Blocked2

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

301Total Passes372

199Accurate Passes271

66%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides6