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Operário PR U20 vs Prudentópolis U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Operário PR U20
Operário PR U20
FT
7 – 0
Prudentópolis U20
Prudentópolis U20
3/29/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 3Centro de Treinamento Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Operário PR U2086%
×Draw9%
Prudentópolis U205%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Operário PR U20
3.48
Prudentópolis U20
0.74

Operário PR U20 creates 370% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 6 away

creates per match

Operário PR U20
2.30
Prudentópolis U20
0.67

allows per match

Operário PR U20
0.81
Prudentópolis U20
4.67

finishing

Operário PR U20+0.00on par
Prudentópolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operário PR U20 ↓

Prudentópolis U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Operário PR U20 or draw
95%
Operário PR U20 or Prudentópolis U20
91%
Draw or Prudentópolis U20
14%

Winning margin

Operário PR U20 wins by 2+
70%
Prudentópolis U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Operário PR U20 1+ goals
97%
Operário PR U20 2+ goals
85%
Operário PR U20 3+ goals
65%
Prudentópolis U20 1+ goals
52%
Prudentópolis U20 2+ goals
17%
Prudentópolis U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Operário PR U20 (draw refunded)
95%
Prudentópolis U20 (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operário PR U20 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Prudentópolis U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operário PR U20 attack 2.30 + Prudentópolis U20 defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.48

Prudentópolis U20 attack 0.67 + Operário PR U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Operário PR U20 scores more
86%
level
9%
Prudentópolis U20 scores more
5%

Operário PR U20 at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Operário PR U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Operário PR U20 7–0 Prudentópolis U20

Operário PR U20 beat Prudentópolis U20 7-0 in Paranaense U20 on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa in Ponta Grossa, Paraná.