Operario Ferroviario 0–2 União Rondonópolis

Operario Ferroviario

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

União Rondonópolis

Léo Ávila 90+5' (pen)

Adinil Junior 79'

5/12/2019

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Universitário Pedro Pedrossian (Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Operario Ferroviario41%

×Draw28%

União Rondonópolis31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario FerroviarioExpected goals in this matchUnião Rondonópolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.05

Operario Ferroviario

1.25

União Rondonópolis

1.05

Operario Ferroviario creates 19% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 39 away

0.77

creates per match

1.10

1.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Operario Ferroviario

0.77

União Rondonópolis

1.10

allows per match

Operario Ferroviario

1.00

União Rondonópolis

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par

União Rondonópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario Ferroviario ↓

União Rondonópolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Operario Ferroviario or draw

69%

Operario Ferroviario or União Rondonópolis

72%

Draw or União Rondonópolis

59%

Winning margin

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+

18%

União Rondonópolis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals

71%

Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals

36%

Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals

13%

União Rondonópolis 1+ goals

65%

União Rondonópolis 2+ goals

28%

União Rondonópolis 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)

57%

União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario Ferroviario at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

União Rondonópolis away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.72 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario Ferroviario attack 0.77 + União Rondonópolis defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.25

União Rondonópolis attack 1.10 + Operario Ferroviario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Operario Ferroviario scores more

41%

level

28%

União Rondonópolis scores more

31%

Operario Ferroviario at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Operario Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Tallysson← Bruno Santos

64'

Adinil Junior← Jeffinho

66'

Hadriel← Lucas Kattah

71'

Dinei← Geovani

79'

Adinil Junior

81'

Araujo← Daniel Lucini

87'

Alexandro← Cadu

90+5'

Léo ÁvilaPenalty

Operario

União

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Celso Rodrigues

66'▲Hadriel←▼Lucas Kattah

81'▲Araujo←▼Daniel Lucini

87'▲Alexandro←▼Cadu

Operario Ferroviario substitutes

HadrielAraujoAlexandroPaulinoGelsonCesarNatanPedroWesleyJuninhoArroz

Manager: Carlos Cunha

13'▲Tallysson←▼Bruno Santos

64'▲Adinil Junior←▼Jeffinho

71'▲Dinei←▼Geovani

União Rondonópolis substitutes

TallyssonJuniorDineiBrunoSantosViniciusHenriquePatrickGonçalves

Match Recap: Operario Ferroviario vs União Rondonópolis

União Rondonópolis beat Operario Ferroviario 2-0 in Serie D on May 12, 2019.

Goals: Adinil Junior (79'), Léo Ávila (90+5' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Universitário Pedro Pedrossian (Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul).

Operario Ferroviario vs União Rondonópolis — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Operario Ferroviario vs União Rondonópolis