Operario Ferroviario 0–1 Inter De Limeira

Operario Ferroviario

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Inter De Limeira

Miguel Bianconi 90'

5/31/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Estadual Jacques da Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Operario Ferroviario27%

×Draw34%

Inter De Limeira39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario FerroviarioExpected goals in this matchInter De Limeira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

0.93

Operario Ferroviario

0.72

Inter De Limeira

0.93

Inter De Limeira creates 29% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

0.77

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Operario Ferroviario

0.77

Inter De Limeira

0.86

allows per match

Operario Ferroviario

1.00

Inter De Limeira

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par

Inter De Limeira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario Ferroviario ↓

Inter De Limeira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–118%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Operario Ferroviario or draw

61%

Operario Ferroviario or Inter De Limeira

66%

Draw or Inter De Limeira

73%

Winning margin

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+

8%

Inter De Limeira wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals

51%

Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals

16%

Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals

4%

Inter De Limeira 1+ goals

61%

Inter De Limeira 2+ goals

24%

Inter De Limeira 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)

41%

Inter De Limeira (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario Ferroviario at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Inter De Limeira away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario Ferroviario attack 0.77 + Inter De Limeira defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Inter De Limeira attack 0.86 + Operario Ferroviario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Operario Ferroviario scores more

27%

level

34%

Inter De Limeira scores more

39%

Inter De Limeira at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Inter De Limeira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

Miguel Bianconi

Operario

Inter

⚽

Manager: Leocir Dall'Astra

Operario Ferroviario substitutes

AugustoFreireBambeloElieserLanzaMohamedItaloVillelaPedrinhoRobertSampaio

Manager: Ademir Fesan

Inter De Limeira substitutes

SouzaRobsonThiaguinhoLeitePaulistaAlmeidaAdrielGabrielHenriqueLiraLucasMaurício

Match Recap: Operario Ferroviario vs Inter De Limeira

Inter De Limeira beat Operario Ferroviario 1-0 in Serie D on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Miguel Bianconi (90').

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Jacques da Luz in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul.

Operario Ferroviario vs Inter De Limeira — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Operario Ferroviario vs Inter De Limeira