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Opava vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Opava
Opava
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vyškov
Vyškov
8/16/2024FNLFNL · Round 6Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Opava45%
×Draw26%
Vyškov29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava
1.44
Vyškov
1.10

Opava creates 31% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

creates per match

Opava
1.65
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Opava
1.03
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Opava+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Opava or draw
71%
Opava or Vyškov
74%
Draw or Vyškov
55%

Winning margin

Opava wins by 2+
22%
Vyškov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Opava 1+ goals
76%
Opava 2+ goals
42%
Opava 3+ goals
18%
Vyškov 1+ goals
67%
Vyškov 2+ goals
30%
Vyškov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Opava (draw refunded)
61%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava attack 1.65 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Opava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Opava scores more
45%
level
26%
Vyškov scores more
29%

Opava at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Opava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Opava vs Vyškov

Opava beat Vyškov 1-0 in FNL on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion v Městských sadech in Opava.