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Opava vs Viktoria Žižkov — FNL 2019

Opava
Opava
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Viktoria Žižkov
Viktoria Žižkov
4/26/2025FNLFNL · Round 25Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Opava50%
×Draw24%
Viktoria Žižkov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava
1.73
Viktoria Žižkov
1.17

Opava creates 48% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 88 away

creates per match

Opava
1.65
Viktoria Žižkov
1.30

allows per match

Opava
1.03
Viktoria Žižkov
1.82

finishing

Opava+0.00on par
Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava ↓

Viktoria Žižkov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Opava or draw
74%
Opava or Viktoria Žižkov
76%
Draw or Viktoria Žižkov
50%

Winning margin

Opava wins by 2+
27%
Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Opava 1+ goals
82%
Opava 2+ goals
52%
Opava 3+ goals
25%
Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals
69%
Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals
33%
Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Opava (draw refunded)
66%
Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Viktoria Žižkov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.82 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava attack 1.65 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.30 + Opava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Opava scores more
50%
level
24%
Viktoria Žižkov scores more
26%

Opava at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Opava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Opava vs Viktoria Žižkov

Opava beat Viktoria Žižkov 3-1 in FNL on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov in Dolní Benešov.