Opava 1–0 Příbram: Result & Stats | FNL

Opava

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Příbram

3/1/2024

FNL · Round 17Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Opava47%

×Draw25%

Příbram28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OpavaExpected goals in this matchPříbram

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.14

Opava

1.56

Příbram

1.14

Opava creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

1.65

creates per match

1.25

1.03

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Opava

1.65

Příbram

1.25

allows per match

Opava

1.03

Příbram

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Opava+0.00on par

Příbram+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava ↓

Příbram →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Opava or draw

72%

Opava or Příbram

75%

Draw or Příbram

53%

Winning margin

Opava wins by 2+

24%

Příbram wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Opava 1+ goals

79%

Opava 2+ goals

46%

Opava 3+ goals

21%

Příbram 1+ goals

68%

Příbram 2+ goals

32%

Příbram 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Opava (draw refunded)

63%

Příbram (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Příbram away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava attack 1.65 + Příbram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Příbram attack 1.25 + Opava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Opava scores more

47%

level

25%

Příbram scores more

28%

Opava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Opava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff