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Sárvári vs Lipot SK — NB III - Southwest 2019

Sárvári
Sárvári
FT
0 – 0
Lipot SK
Lipot SK
9/15/2019NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 7Sárvári Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sárvári26%
×Draw27%
Lipot SK46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sárvári
0.97
Lipot SK
1.38

Lipot SK creates 42% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

creates per match

Sárvári
0.60
Lipot SK
1.55

allows per match

Sárvári
1.20
Lipot SK
1.34

finishing

Sárvári+0.00on par
Lipot SK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sárvári ↓

Lipot SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sárvári or draw
54%
Sárvári or Lipot SK
73%
Draw or Lipot SK
74%

Winning margin

Sárvári wins by 2+
9%
Lipot SK wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sárvári 1+ goals
62%
Sárvári 2+ goals
25%
Sárvári 3+ goals
7%
Lipot SK 1+ goals
75%
Lipot SK 2+ goals
40%
Lipot SK 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sárvári (draw refunded)
36%
Lipot SK (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sárvári at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Lipot SK away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sárvári attack 0.60 + Lipot SK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.97

Lipot SK attack 1.55 + Sárvári defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sárvári scores more
26%
level
27%
Lipot SK scores more
46%

Lipot SK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lipot SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Sárvári vs Lipot SK

Sárvári and Lipot SK drew 0-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Sárvári Sporttelep in Sárvár.