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Opava vs AS Trencin — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Opava
Opava
Canc
10:00
AS Trencin
AS Trencin
1/26/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UMT Kylešovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Opava56%
×Draw21%
AS Trencin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava
2.09
AS Trencin
1.27

Opava creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Opava
2.38
AS Trencin
1.40

allows per match

Opava
1.15
AS Trencin
1.80

finishing

Opava+0.00on par
AS Trencin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava ↓

AS Trencin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Opava or draw
77%
Opava or AS Trencin
79%
Draw or AS Trencin
44%

Winning margin

Opava wins by 2+
34%
AS Trencin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Opava 1+ goals
88%
Opava 2+ goals
62%
Opava 3+ goals
34%
AS Trencin 1+ goals
72%
AS Trencin 2+ goals
36%
AS Trencin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Opava (draw refunded)
71%
AS Trencin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

AS Trencin away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava attack 2.38 + AS Trencin defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.09

AS Trencin attack 1.40 + Opava defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Opava scores more
56%
level
21%
AS Trencin scores more
23%

Opava at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Opava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Opava vs AS Trencin — Match Preview

Opava face AS Trencin on January 26, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Opava host AS Trencin at UMT Kylešovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.