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Opava U19 vs Zlín U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Opava U19
Opava U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zlín U19
Zlín U19
5/14/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 25Hřiště U koupaliště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Opava U1929%
×Draw22%
Zlín U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava U19
1.50
Zlín U19
2.02

Zlín U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 79 away

creates per match

Opava U19
1.12
Zlín U19
1.62

allows per match

Opava U19
2.42
Zlín U19
1.89

finishing

Opava U19+0.00on par
Zlín U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava U19 ↓

Zlín U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Opava U19 or draw
50%
Opava U19 or Zlín U19
78%
Draw or Zlín U19
71%

Winning margin

Opava U19 wins by 2+
13%
Zlín U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Opava U19 1+ goals
78%
Opava U19 2+ goals
44%
Opava U19 3+ goals
19%
Zlín U19 1+ goals
87%
Zlín U19 2+ goals
60%
Zlín U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Opava U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Zlín U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Zlín U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava U19 attack 1.12 + Zlín U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zlín U19 attack 1.62 + Opava U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Opava U19 scores more
29%
level
22%
Zlín U19 scores more
50%

Zlín U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zlín U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Opava U19 1–1 Zlín U19

Opava U19 and Zlín U19 drew 1-1 in 1. Liga U19 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště U koupaliště in Opava.