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Opava U19 vs Vysočina Jihlava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Opava U19
Opava U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vysočina Jihlava U19
Vysočina Jihlava U19
11/9/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 14UMT Kylešovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Opava U1938%
×Draw22%
Vysočina Jihlava U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava U19
1.74
Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 60 away

creates per match

Opava U19
1.12
Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.15

allows per match

Opava U19
2.42
Vysočina Jihlava U19
2.35

finishing

Opava U19+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava U19 ↓

Vysočina Jihlava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Opava U19 or draw
60%
Opava U19 or Vysočina Jihlava U19
78%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava U19
62%

Winning margin

Opava U19 wins by 2+
19%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Opava U19 1+ goals
82%
Opava U19 2+ goals
52%
Opava U19 3+ goals
25%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals
83%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals
53%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Opava U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Vysočina Jihlava U19 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava U19 attack 1.12 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.15 + Opava U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Opava U19 scores more
38%
level
22%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more
40%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Opava U19 vs Vysočina Jihlava U19

Opava U19 and Vysočina Jihlava U19 drew 2-2 in 1. Liga U19 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at UMT Kylešovice in Kylešovice.