Opava U19 1–2 Příbram U19: Result & Stats

Opava U19

FT

1 – 2

Příbram U19

R. Kovarnik 20'

M. Kudelnak 80'

V. Hysek 65'

9/25/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 9Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Opava U1959%

×Draw18%

Příbram U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Opava U19Expected goals in this matchPříbram U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.64

Opava U19

2.68

Příbram U19

1.64

Opava U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

1.12

creates per match

0.85

2.42

allows per match

4.24

creates per match

Opava U19

1.12

Příbram U19

0.85

allows per match

Opava U19

2.42

Příbram U19

4.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Opava U19+0.00on par

Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Opava U19 or draw

77%

Opava U19 or Příbram U19

82%

Draw or Příbram U19

41%

Winning margin

Opava U19 wins by 2+

39%

Příbram U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Opava U19 1+ goals

93%

Opava U19 2+ goals

74%

Opava U19 3+ goals

49%

Příbram U19 1+ goals

81%

Příbram U19 2+ goals

49%

Příbram U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Opava U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava U19 attack 1.12 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.68

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Opava U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Opava U19 scores more

59%

level

18%

Příbram U19 scores more

23%

Opava U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Opava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

R. Kovarnik

65'

V. Hysek

80'

M. Kudelnak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff