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Opava U19 vs Jablonec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Opava U19
Opava U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
T. Hejhal 58'
S. Emmanuel 13'
8/23/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 3Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Opava U1937%
×Draw22%
Jablonec U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava U19
1.70
Jablonec U19
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Opava U19
1.12
Jablonec U19
1.20

allows per match

Opava U19
2.42
Jablonec U19
2.27

finishing

Opava U19+0.00on par
Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Opava U19 or draw
59%
Opava U19 or Jablonec U19
78%
Draw or Jablonec U19
63%

Winning margin

Opava U19 wins by 2+
18%
Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Opava U19 1+ goals
82%
Opava U19 2+ goals
51%
Opava U19 3+ goals
24%
Jablonec U19 1+ goals
84%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
54%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Opava U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava U19 attack 1.12 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Opava U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Opava U19 scores more
37%
level
22%
Jablonec U19 scores more
41%

Jablonec U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jablonec U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
S. Emmanuel
41'
K. Hudak
43'
L. Kostka
45+2'
P. Krap
45+4'
Missed penalty
49'
K. Svaty
58'
T. Hejhal
58'
J. Klucky← J. Klucky
65'
V. Hendrych← V. Hendrych
65'
L. Geryk← L. Geryk
65'
J. Gebauer← J. Gebauer
68'
A. Konak← A. Konak
68'
L. Sirucek← L. Sirucek
76'
P. Dustira← P. Dustira
82'
L. Bolik← L. Bolik
82'
P. Broz← P. Broz
90+1'
S. Novotny

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Opava U19 1–1 Jablonec U19

Opava U19 and Jablonec U19 drew 1-1 in 1. Liga U19 on August 23, 2024.

Goals: S. Emmanuel (13'), T. Hejhal (58').

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice in Velké Hoštice.