Opava U19 vs Hradec Králové U19

Opava U19

CANC

11:00

Hradec Králové U19

4/10/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 11Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Opava U1932%

×Draw22%

Hradec Králové U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Opava U19Expected goals in this matchHradec Králové U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.93

Opava U19

1.59

Hradec Králové U19

1.93

Hradec Králové U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 48 away

1.12

creates per match

1.44

2.42

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Opava U19

1.12

Hradec Králové U19

1.44

allows per match

Opava U19

2.42

Hradec Králové U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Opava U19+0.00on par

Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava U19 ↓

Hradec Králové U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Opava U19 or draw

54%

Opava U19 or Hradec Králové U19

78%

Draw or Hradec Králové U19

68%

Winning margin

Opava U19 wins by 2+

15%

Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Opava U19 1+ goals

80%

Opava U19 2+ goals

47%

Opava U19 3+ goals

21%

Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals

85%

Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals

57%

Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Opava U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Hradec Králové U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava U19 attack 1.12 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.44 + Opava U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Opava U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

Hradec Králové U19 scores more

46%

Hradec Králové U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hradec Králové U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff