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Opava II vs Heřmanice Slezská — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Opava II
Opava II
FT
11 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
4/17/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Opava II84%
×Draw10%
Heřmanice Slezská6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava II
3.54
Heřmanice Slezská
0.92

Opava II creates 285% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

creates per match

Opava II
2.67
Heřmanice Slezská
0.47

allows per match

Opava II
1.38
Heřmanice Slezská
4.41

finishing

Opava II+0.00on par
Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava II ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Opava II or draw
94%
Opava II or Heřmanice Slezská
90%
Draw or Heřmanice Slezská
16%

Winning margin

Opava II wins by 2+
67%
Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Opava II 1+ goals
97%
Opava II 2+ goals
86%
Opava II 3+ goals
66%
Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
60%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
23%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Opava II (draw refunded)
93%
Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.38 · 76 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava II attack 2.67 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 3.54

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Opava II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Opava II scores more
84%
level
10%
Heřmanice Slezská scores more
6%

Opava II at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Opava II vs Heřmanice Slezská

Opava II beat Heřmanice Slezská 11-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice in Velké Hoštice.