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Opava II vs Dětmarovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Opava II
Opava II
FT
1 – 1
Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
9/4/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 6Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Opava II73%
×Draw14%
Dětmarovice12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava II
3.12
Dětmarovice
1.25

Opava II creates 150% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 18 away

creates per match

Opava II
2.67
Dětmarovice
1.11

allows per match

Opava II
1.38
Dětmarovice
3.56

finishing

Opava II+0.00on par
Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava II ↓

Dětmarovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Opava II or draw
88%
Opava II or Dětmarovice
86%
Draw or Dětmarovice
27%

Winning margin

Opava II wins by 2+
54%
Dětmarovice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Opava II 1+ goals
95%
Opava II 2+ goals
81%
Opava II 3+ goals
59%
Dětmarovice 1+ goals
71%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
36%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Opava II (draw refunded)
86%
Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.38 · 76 matches

Dětmarovice away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava II attack 2.67 + Dětmarovice defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 3.12

Dětmarovice attack 1.11 + Opava II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Opava II scores more
73%
level
14%
Dětmarovice scores more
12%

Opava II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Opava II vs Dětmarovice

Opava II and Dětmarovice drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice in Velké Hoštice.