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Opatija vs Zrinski Jurjevac — Second NL 2022

Opatija
Opatija
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
E. Junuzovic 83'
P. Korov 76'
S. Salapic 47'
11/11/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 13Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Opatija40%
×Draw27%
Zrinski Jurjevac33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opatija
1.30
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.15

Opatija creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Opatija
1.80
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

allows per match

Opatija
0.77
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.80

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Opatija or draw
67%
Opatija or Zrinski Jurjevac
73%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
60%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+
18%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals
73%
Opatija 2+ goals
37%
Opatija 3+ goals
14%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
68%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
32%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)
55%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.80 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Opatija defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Opatija scores more
40%
level
27%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
33%

Opatija at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
S. Salapic
76'
P. Korov
83'
E. Junuzovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Opatija 1–2 Zrinski Jurjevac

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Opatija 2-1 in Second NL on November 11, 2022.

Goals: S. Salapic (47'), P. Korov (76'), E. Junuzovic (83').

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.