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Opatija vs Zagorec — Second NL 2022

Opatija
Opatija
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zagorec
Zagorec
10/14/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 9Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Opatija61%
×Draw22%
Zagorec17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opatija
1.90
Zagorec
0.89

Opatija creates 113% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Opatija
1.80
Zagorec
1.00

allows per match

Opatija
0.77
Zagorec
2.00

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par
Zagorec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

Zagorec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Opatija or draw
83%
Opatija or Zagorec
78%
Draw or Zagorec
39%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+
36%
Zagorec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals
85%
Opatija 2+ goals
56%
Opatija 3+ goals
29%
Zagorec 1+ goals
59%
Zagorec 2+ goals
22%
Zagorec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)
78%
Zagorec (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Zagorec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.80 + Zagorec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Zagorec attack 1.00 + Opatija defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Opatija scores more
61%
level
22%
Zagorec scores more
17%

Opatija at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Opatija vs Zagorec

Opatija beat Zagorec 3-0 in Second NL on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.