Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Opatija vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Opatija
Opatija
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
N. Kasikovic 73'
F. Lisnic 45+1'
4/28/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 25Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Opatija69%
×Draw19%
NK Osijek II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opatija
2.10
NK Osijek II
0.72

Opatija creates 192% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Opatija
1.80
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Opatija
0.77
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Opatija or draw
88%
Opatija or NK Osijek II
81%
Draw or NK Osijek II
31%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+
44%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals
88%
Opatija 2+ goals
62%
Opatija 3+ goals
35%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
51%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
16%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)
86%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.80 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Opatija defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Opatija scores more
69%
level
19%
NK Osijek II scores more
12%

Opatija at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
F. Lisnic
73'
N. Kasikovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Opatija 1 – 1 NK Osijek II

Opatija and NK Osijek II drew 1-1 in Second NL on April 28, 2023.

Goals: F. Lisnic (45+1'), N. Kasikovic (73').

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.