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Opatija vs Križevci — Second NL 2022

Opatija
Opatija
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Križevci
Križevci
9/15/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 5Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Opatija50%
×Draw25%
Križevci24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opatija
1.58
Križevci
1.02

Opatija creates 55% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Opatija
1.80
Križevci
1.26

allows per match

Opatija
0.77
Križevci
1.35

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par
Križevci+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

Križevci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Opatija or draw
76%
Opatija or Križevci
75%
Draw or Križevci
50%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+
26%
Križevci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals
79%
Opatija 2+ goals
47%
Opatija 3+ goals
21%
Križevci 1+ goals
64%
Križevci 2+ goals
27%
Križevci 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)
67%
Križevci (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Križevci away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.80 + Križevci defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Križevci attack 1.26 + Opatija defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Opatija scores more
50%
level
25%
Križevci scores more
24%

Opatija at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Opatija 0–1 Križevci

Križevci beat Opatija 1-0 in Second NL on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.