Opatija 3–2 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats

Opatija

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Inter Zapresic

11/25/2020

First NL · Round 13Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Opatija44%

×Draw27%

Inter Zapresic29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OpatijaExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.04

Opatija

1.34

Inter Zapresic

1.04

Opatija creates 29% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 32 away

1.34

creates per match

1.19

0.89

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Opatija

1.34

Inter Zapresic

1.19

allows per match

Opatija

0.89

Inter Zapresic

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Opatija or draw

71%

Opatija or Inter Zapresic

73%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

56%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+

20%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals

74%

Opatija 2+ goals

39%

Opatija 3+ goals

15%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

65%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

28%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)

60%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 65 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.34 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Opatija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Opatija scores more

44%

level

27%

Inter Zapresic scores more

29%

Opatija at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff