Opatija 1–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac: Result & Stats

Opatija

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

3/15/2024

Second NL · Round 19Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Opatija59%

×Draw23%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OpatijaExpected goals in this matchHrvatski Dragovoljac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.90

Opatija

1.80

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

0.90

Opatija creates 100% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.80

creates per match

1.02

0.77

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Opatija

1.80

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.02

allows per match

Opatija

0.77

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Opatija or draw

81%

Opatija or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

77%

Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

41%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+

34%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals

83%

Opatija 2+ goals

54%

Opatija 3+ goals

27%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

59%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

23%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)

76%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.80 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Opatija defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Opatija scores more

59%

level

23%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

19%

Opatija at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff