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Oostende vs Lokeren — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Oostende
Oostende
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokeren
Lokeren
Fernando Canesin 72'
12/8/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 18Versluys Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Oostende40%
×Draw25%
Lokeren35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.52
Lokeren
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 30 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.38
Lokeren
1.03

allows per match

Oostende
1.76
Lokeren
1.67

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
Lokeren+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Lokeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
65%
Oostende or Lokeren
75%
Draw or Lokeren
60%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
20%
Lokeren wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
78%
Oostende 2+ goals
45%
Oostende 3+ goals
20%
Lokeren 1+ goals
75%
Lokeren 2+ goals
41%
Lokeren 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
54%
Lokeren (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

Lokeren away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.38 + Lokeren defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lokeren attack 1.03 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oostende scores more
40%
level
25%
Lokeren scores more
35%

Oostende at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
Mario Tičinović← Guus Hupperts
65'
Žarko Tomašević
68'
Ari Freyr Skúlason
72'
Fernando Canesin
73'
Jelle Bataille← Indy Boonen
73'
Amine Benchaib← Joher Khadim Rassoul
85'
Mario Tičinović
85'
Marko Miric
86'
Sindrit Guri← Richairo Zivkovic
87'
Anton Saroka← Ari Freyr Skúlason
88'
Goran Milović← Sander Coopman

Statistics

OostendeLokeren
Overview
1Corners4
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Jupiler Pro League: Oostende 1–0 Lokeren

Oostende beat Lokeren 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 8, 2018.

Goals: Fernando Canesin (72').

The match was played at Versluys Arena in Oostend.