Oostende 0–2 Kortrijk: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kortrijk

K. Vandendriessche 63'

K. D'Haene 45'

12/14/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 19Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Oostende39%

×Draw25%

Kortrijk37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchKortrijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.45

Oostende

1.50

Kortrijk

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 116 away

1.34

creates per match

1.11

1.78

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Oostende

1.34

Kortrijk

1.11

allows per match

Oostende

1.78

Kortrijk

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Kortrijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Kortrijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

63%

Oostende or Kortrijk

75%

Draw or Kortrijk

61%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

19%

Kortrijk wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

78%

Oostende 2+ goals

44%

Oostende 3+ goals

19%

Kortrijk 1+ goals

77%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

42%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

51%

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + Kortrijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kortrijk attack 1.11 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oostende scores more

39%

level

25%

Kortrijk scores more

37%

Oostende at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

K. D'Haene

Kortrijk · D

7.7

Match Events

20'

Gilles Dewaele

37'

M. Moreno← A. Kadri

45'

K. D'Haene↳ F. Selemani

55'

Kenny Rocha Santos← M. DArpino

59'

D. Atanga← B. Capon

61'

Frederik Jakel

62'

Dylan MbayoPenalty cancelled

63'

K. Vandendriessche↳ F. Selemani

73'

E. Patoulidis← R. DHaese

73'

S. Wylin← A. Amade

75'

T. Derijck← A. Radovanović

76'

B. Messaoudi← D. Mbayo

76'

L. Rougeaux← K. DHaene

90'

M. Fixelles← F. Selemani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeKortrijk

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots13

6Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots13

0On Target4

7Off Target5

4Blocked4

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

465Total Passes331

343Accurate Passes227

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2