Oostende 0–4 Genk: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Genk

P. Hrošovský 78'

D. Muñoz 35'

J. Ito 12'

I. Ugbo 6'

12/26/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 21Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Oostende31%

×Draw23%

Genk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchGenk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.73

Oostende

1.41

Genk

1.73

Genk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 155 away

1.37

creates per match

1.69

1.76

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Oostende

1.37

Genk

1.69

allows per match

Oostende

1.76

Genk

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Genk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Genk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

55%

Oostende or Genk

77%

Draw or Genk

69%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

14%

Genk wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

76%

Oostende 2+ goals

41%

Oostende 3+ goals

17%

Genk 1+ goals

82%

Genk 2+ goals

52%

Genk 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

41%

Genk (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 86 matches

Genk away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.45 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.37 + Genk defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Genk attack 1.69 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oostende scores more

31%

level

23%

Genk scores more

45%

Genk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Ito

Genk · F

9.3

Match Events

6'

I. Ugbo↳ J. Ito

12'

J. Ito↳ P. Hrošovský

35'

D. Muñoz↳ G. Arteaga

44'

A. Tanghe← E. Patoulidis

46'

C. McGeehan← R. DHaese

49'

Cameron McGeehan

73'

L. Oyen← T. Bongonda

78'

P. Hrošovský↳ D. Muñoz

79'

83'

86'

86'

86'

C. Eiting← P. Hrošovský

88'

Carel Eiting

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeGenk

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots15

1Corners9

15Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots15

2On Target10

4Off Target2

1Blocked3

2Inside Box13

5Outside Box2

Passing

34%Possession66%

290Total Passes582

186Accurate Passes470

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides5

Oostende 0 – 4 Genk

Genk beat Oostende 4-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 26, 2021.

Goals: I. Ugbo (6'), J. Ito (12'), D. Muñoz (35'), P. Hrošovský (78').

Genk controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Diaz Arena in Oostende.

Oostende vs Genk — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Oostende 0 – 4 Genk