Oostende 3–1 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

Oostende

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Beerschot VA

A. Amade 66'

B. Capon 7'

M. Gueye 5' (pen)

I. Soumaré 81'

9/18/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 8Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Oostende47%

×Draw23%

Beerschot VA30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OostendeExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.43

Oostende

1.82

Beerschot VA

1.43

Oostende creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 54 away

1.34

creates per match

1.07

1.78

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Oostende

1.34

Beerschot VA

1.07

allows per match

Oostende

1.78

Beerschot VA

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Oostende or draw

70%

Oostende or Beerschot VA

77%

Draw or Beerschot VA

53%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+

25%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals

84%

Oostende 2+ goals

54%

Oostende 3+ goals

27%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

76%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

42%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)

61%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.78 · 83 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.34 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.82

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + Oostende defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oostende scores more

47%

level

23%

Beerschot VA scores more

30%

Oostende at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oostende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

M. Vanhamel

Beerschot VA · G

7.9

Match Events

3'

Nick BatznerPenalty cancelled

3'

Nick BatznerPenalty cancelled

5'

M. GueyePenalty

7'

B. Capon

46'

R. Vaca← F. Frans

52'

56'

66'

72'

72'

78'

M. Caicedo← I. Coulibaly

79'

V. Koziello← N. Bätzner

79'

T. De Smet← P. Bourdin

81'

I. Soumaré↳ M. Halaimia

87'

89'

89'

90+8'

90+2'

Z. Medley← M. DArpino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OostendeBeerschot

Overview

44%Possession56%

18Total Shots12

8Corners5

20Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots12

12On Target4

3Off Target6

3Blocked2

14Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

347Total Passes461

258Accurate Passes363

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

20Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2