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Oostende vs Anderlecht — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Oostende
Oostende
FT
0 – 3
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
4/24/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oostende30%
×Draw24%
Anderlecht45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.29
Anderlecht
1.63

Anderlecht creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.33
Anderlecht
1.25

allows per match

Oostende
2.00
Anderlecht
1.25

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
55%
Oostende or Anderlecht
76%
Draw or Anderlecht
70%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
13%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
72%
Oostende 2+ goals
37%
Oostende 3+ goals
14%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
80%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
48%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
40%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.33 + Anderlecht defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Anderlecht attack 1.25 + Oostende defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oostende scores more
30%
level
24%
Anderlecht scores more
45%

Anderlecht at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oostende vs Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat Oostende 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Diaz Arena in Oostende.