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Anderlecht vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
7/24/2022Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 1Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Anderlecht57%
×Draw23%
Oostende20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.83
Oostende
0.99

Anderlecht creates 85% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 83 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.81
Oostende
0.96

allows per match

Anderlecht
1.02
Oostende
1.86

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
80%
Anderlecht or Oostende
77%
Draw or Oostende
43%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
33%
Oostende wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
84%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
54%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
28%
Oostende 1+ goals
63%
Oostende 2+ goals
26%
Oostende 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
74%
Oostende (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.02 · 150 matches

Oostende away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.81 + Oostende defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Oostende attack 0.96 + Anderlecht defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Anderlecht scores more
57%
level
23%
Oostende scores more
20%

Anderlecht at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Oostende

Anderlecht beat Oostende 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.