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Oostende vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Oostende
Oostende
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
M. Gueye 34' (pen)
R. D'Haese 11'
P. Tau 54'
A. Trebel 35'
8/28/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 4Diaz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Oostende33%
×Draw25%
Anderlecht43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oostende
1.35
Anderlecht
1.57

Anderlecht creates 16% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 152 away

creates per match

Oostende
1.38
Anderlecht
1.39

allows per match

Oostende
1.76
Anderlecht
1.32

finishing

Oostende+0.00on par
Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oostende ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oostende or draw
57%
Oostende or Anderlecht
75%
Draw or Anderlecht
67%

Winning margin

Oostende wins by 2+
15%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Oostende 1+ goals
74%
Oostende 2+ goals
39%
Oostende 3+ goals
15%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
46%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Oostende (draw refunded)
44%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oostende at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 84 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oostende attack 1.38 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Anderlecht attack 1.39 + Oostende defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oostende scores more
33%
level
25%
Anderlecht scores more
43%

Anderlecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
R. D'Haese
29'
Maxime D'Arpino
31'
K. Sardella← E. Cobbaut
34'
Marco Kana
34'
M. GueyePenalty
35'
A. Trebel
43'
Michael Murillo
46'
L. Nmecha← A. Colassin
54'
P. Tau↳ A. Trebel
55'
I. Boonen← F. Sakala
56'
Arthur Theate
57'
Adrien Trebel
61'
T. Matam← A. Skúlason
72'
Cameron McGeehan
74'
M. Kvasina← M. Gueye
89'
L. Dimata← P. Tau

Statistics

OostendeAnderlecht
Overview
5Corners4
Discipline
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Oostende vs Anderlecht

Oostende and Anderlecht drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on August 28, 2020.

Goals: R. D'Haese (11'), M. Gueye (34' pen), A. Trebel (35'), P. Tau (54').

The match was played at Diaz Arena in Oostende.