Onze Créateurs 0–0 USC Kita: Result & Stats

Onze Créateurs

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

USC Kita

5/4/2024

Première Division · Round 25Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Onze Créateurs41%

×Draw31%

USC Kita28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Onze CréateursExpected goals in this matchUSC Kita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.84

Onze Créateurs

1.09

USC Kita

0.84

Onze Créateurs creates 30% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 66 away

1.14

creates per match

0.76

0.92

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Onze Créateurs

1.14

USC Kita

0.76

allows per match

Onze Créateurs

0.92

USC Kita

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

USC Kita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onze Créateurs ↓

USC Kita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Onze Créateurs or draw

72%

Onze Créateurs or USC Kita

69%

Draw or USC Kita

59%

Winning margin

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+

17%

USC Kita wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals

66%

Onze Créateurs 2+ goals

30%

Onze Créateurs 3+ goals

10%

USC Kita 1+ goals

57%

USC Kita 2+ goals

21%

USC Kita 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)

60%

USC Kita (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onze Créateurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

USC Kita away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onze Créateurs attack 1.14 + USC Kita defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

USC Kita attack 0.76 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Onze Créateurs scores more

41%

level

31%

USC Kita scores more

28%

Onze Créateurs at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff