Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Onze Créateurs vs Derby Academie — Première Division 2019

Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Derby Academie
Derby Academie
1/10/2026Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Onze Créateurs39%
×Draw33%
Derby Academie28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Onze Créateurs
0.99
Derby Academie
0.80

Onze Créateurs creates 24% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 13 away

creates per match

Onze Créateurs
1.14
Derby Academie
0.69

allows per match

Onze Créateurs
0.92
Derby Academie
0.85

finishing

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par
Derby Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onze Créateurs ↓

Derby Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Onze Créateurs or draw
72%
Onze Créateurs or Derby Academie
67%
Draw or Derby Academie
61%

Winning margin

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+
15%
Derby Academie wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals
63%
Onze Créateurs 2+ goals
26%
Onze Créateurs 3+ goals
8%
Derby Academie 1+ goals
55%
Derby Academie 2+ goals
19%
Derby Academie 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)
58%
Derby Academie (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onze Créateurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Derby Academie away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onze Créateurs attack 1.14 + Derby Academie defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Derby Academie attack 0.69 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Onze Créateurs scores more
39%
level
33%
Derby Academie scores more
28%

Onze Créateurs at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Onze Créateurs vs Derby Academie

Derby Academie beat Onze Créateurs 1-0 in Première Division on January 10, 2026.