Onze Créateurs 1–0 Bougouni: Result & Stats

Onze Créateurs

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bougouni

2/3/2025

Première Division · Round 11Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Onze Créateurs52%

×Draw28%

Bougouni20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Onze CréateursExpected goals in this matchBougouni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.74

Onze Créateurs

1.36

Bougouni

0.74

Onze Créateurs creates 84% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

1.14

creates per match

0.57

0.92

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Onze Créateurs

1.14

Bougouni

0.57

allows per match

Onze Créateurs

0.92

Bougouni

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Bougouni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Onze Créateurs ↓

Bougouni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Onze Créateurs or draw

80%

Onze Créateurs or Bougouni

72%

Draw or Bougouni

48%

Winning margin

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+

25%

Bougouni wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals

74%

Onze Créateurs 2+ goals

39%

Onze Créateurs 3+ goals

16%

Bougouni 1+ goals

52%

Bougouni 2+ goals

17%

Bougouni 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)

72%

Bougouni (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Onze Créateurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Bougouni away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Onze Créateurs attack 1.14 + Bougouni defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bougouni attack 0.57 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Onze Créateurs scores more

52%

level

28%

Bougouni scores more

20%

Onze Créateurs at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Onze Créateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff