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Ontinyent 1931 vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ontinyent 193139%
×Draw29%
Villarreal III31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ontinyent 1931
1.16
Villarreal III
1.00

Ontinyent 1931 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931
1.08
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931
0.63
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw
69%
Ontinyent 1931 or Villarreal III
71%
Draw or Villarreal III
61%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
17%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
69%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
32%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
11%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
63%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
26%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
56%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more
39%
level
29%
Villarreal III scores more
31%

Ontinyent 1931 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ontinyent 1931 1 – 2 Villarreal III

Villarreal III beat Ontinyent 1931 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Clariano in Ontinyent.