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Ontinyent 1931 vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jove Español
Jove Español
2/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Estadio Municipal El Clariano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ontinyent 193145%
×Draw31%
Jove Español24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ontinyent 1931
1.15
Jove Español
0.74

Ontinyent 1931 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ontinyent 1931
1.08
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Ontinyent 1931
0.63
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ontinyent 1931 ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ontinyent 1931 or draw
76%
Ontinyent 1931 or Jove Español
69%
Draw or Jove Español
55%

Winning margin

Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
20%
Jove Español wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
68%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
32%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
11%
Jove Español 1+ goals
52%
Jove Español 2+ goals
17%
Jove Español 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
66%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ontinyent 1931 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.63 · 51 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ontinyent 1931 attack 1.08 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ontinyent 1931 scores more
45%
level
31%
Jove Español scores more
24%

Ontinyent 1931 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ontinyent 1931 vs Jove Español

Ontinyent 1931 beat Jove Español 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Clariano in Ontinyent.